Now that we know the results from Iowa and New Hampshire, how much do they really tell us about who will eventually capture the Democratic and Republican nominations? As the charts below indicate, the first two states have usually had some predictive power – it’s unusual for a candidate to win neither but still emerge … Continue reading »
presidential election
An open letter to Peggy O’Donnell
Dear Peggy: I want first to express my admiration for your recent post. It was eloquent and to the point, and everything you said was well worth saying. But there was also a lot in your post that troubled me, as an older woman and a feminist, a great deal. I cannot let these arguments … Continue reading »
Feminism’s fault lines: understanding young women’s support for Bernie
This campaign season has been pretty bleak on the gender front, from Marco Rubio’s assurance that he understands rape victims’ “terrible situation,” but would insist on them carrying any resulting child regardless, to Trump’s “blood out of her…wherever” comment heard ’round the world. Even so, last weekend stood out a new low for women, particularly for … Continue reading »
Election 2016: The long and uncertain path to a Trump victory
After his victory in New Hampshire, Donald Trump has shown that he is a real contender for the Republican Party’s nomination. Prediction markets, in which consumers can place bids on who will win the nomination, had soured on Trump following his setback in Iowa. But right now on Predict It, Trump’s shares are worth twice … Continue reading »
‘The Big Short’ and Bernie’s plan to bust up Wall Street
If you haven’t yet seen “The Big Short” – directed and co-written by Adam McKay, based on the non-fiction prize-winning book by Michael Lewis about the housing and credit bubble that triggered the Great Recession — I recommend you do so. Not only is the movie an enjoyable (if that’s the right word) way to understand … Continue reading »
On environmental policy, 2016 is the year of living dangerously
We are at the start of a year of danger for environmental policy. 2015 saw many accomplishments in environmental law: the Administration issued the “waters of the United States” and Clean Power Plan regulations, a Supreme Court ruling in favor of EPA’s cross-state air pollution rule, and the Paris Agreement on climate change. Much of this progress is … Continue reading »
Election 2016: Is it too late for Joe Biden?
Vice President Joe Biden has been pondering the 2016 presidential race and lately that thinking has been done in a more public way: meeting with Sen. Elizabeth Warren over the weekend, receiving President Obama’s blessing to run, and seeking out senior Democratic staff members and fundraisers. The question is, if Biden enters the race now, … Continue reading »
Election 2016: Dumbing down American politics — Lawrence Lessig and the presidency
Donald Trump and the Amen chorus of Republican presidential aspirants may have appeared to monopolize the capacity to make fantastical claims about what’s wrong with America and how to fix it. But a rival has appeared on the scene, outlining a very different fantasy plan to run for president on the Democratic side of the … Continue reading »
Donald Trump and friendly fascism reconsidered
Donald Trump’s entrance into the presidential sweepstakes and substantial lead in the polls reminds me of the warnings issued 35 years ago in Bertram Gross’s widely read Friendly Fascism. Gross was concerned that the ever-closer integration of Big Business and Big Government could well lead to a new, kinder, gentler form of fascism — a fascism that … Continue reading »
Is Jeb too green? GOP primary voters may think so
At this point, the GOP Presidential field looks like Jeb Bush versus Everyone Else. (Of course, there’s a big fight over who get’s to play Everyone Else when this particular play opens in Iowa and New Hampshire.) It’s an open question whether Jeb will turn out to be too green for the average GOP primary voter. … Continue reading »
Occupy 2012: Another 1968?
The 1968 presidential election was pivotal. It was also extremely close. Democratic Vice-President Hubert Humphrey lost to Republican candidate Richard Nixon by 0.7% of the popular vote; Humphrey lost several big states by less than 2 or 3%. That loss ended the most progressive eight-year period in American history since the New Deal — voting … Continue reading »