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The latest Prop. 30 poll and the lessons of history

Ethan Rarick, director, Matsui Center | November 5, 2012

On Election Eve, what to make of the new Field Poll on Prop. 30? Looking back at the state’s political history, most propositions in roughly similar situations pass, but tax-increase measures fare especially poorly in the final week, with undecided voters breaking sharply toward opposition, and sometimes even with former supporters migrating to the no … Continue reading »

Will Prop. 30 pass? Here’s some historical perspective

Ethan Rarick, director, Matsui Center | September 26, 2012

What’s the likely outcome for Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown’s proposed tax increase? That’s the million-dollar question — well, OK, the $6-billion question — for the California political community at the moment. Prop. 30 is ahead in the most recent IGS/Field Poll, 51-36 with 13 percent undecided. A nearly simultaneous PPIC Poll has remarkably similar … Continue reading »