Friday April 24, I am excited and curious to set foot in the Maidan, or Independence Square in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, a square that has played such a big role in the February 2014 revolution that ousted corrupt Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych. The first thing I see when entering the square is a small … Continue reading »
Ukraine
Ukraine’s Economic Crisis is Deep; It Needs Loans Faster Than You May Think
The uncertainty around how much — and how soon — Ukraine might get help from international lenders is contributing to two real economic dangers facing the country: a default on its debts and a radical slashing of the budget. Ukraine’s friends — the United States and European governments — need to do a better job, … Continue reading »
Putin’s Endgame
By Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gerard Roland (UC Berkeley) There is every evidence that Russian troops are fighting the Ukrainian army on the Ukrainian soil. This Russian invasion is a further escalation of the war between Ukraine and Russian-sponsored separatists and terrorists in the East of Ukraine. As soon as the Ukrainian forces were about to … Continue reading »
Macroeconomic stimulus for Ukraine
After years of mismanagement and looting, Ukraine faces a number of economic challenges. The situation is so critical that weak economic performance in the next few years could undermine the very independence of the country. Just yesterday, President Poroshenko signed a degree setting up the National Council for Reforms to design and coordinate reforms in … Continue reading »
MH17
I flew to Ukraine on July 16, 2014. It was a typical flight and travelers thought they could abstract from the war in the East of Ukraine. The next day changed everything. Pro-Russian separatists shot down MH17, a passenger airplane with 298 people aboard, 80 of which were children. This is an unspeakable crime that has … Continue reading »
The Third Russia-Ukraine Gas War
At 10 am on Monday, June 16, 2014, Gazprom, a Russian gas monopoly, cut off supplies of gas to Ukraine. This is the third time in the last ten years when Gazprom has tried to use a cut-off to force the Ukrainian government to accept a deal it did not want to accept. In the … Continue reading »
Economic prospects of Ukraine
Ukraine is living through most trying times: Maidan protests, snipers killing dozens of unarmed protesters, the fall of Viktor Yanukovych’s regime, near-default of the government, Russian annexation of Crimea, and Russian-sponsored separatist mutiny in Ukraine’s East. With the victory of the February revolution, the new government, and the new elected president Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine has … Continue reading »
Ukraine’s path to oligarchy: Lessons for the U.S.?
The New York Times just posted a debate on whether there is oligarchy in the U.S. Because countries’ political systems tend to develop only gradually, it can be difficult to draw a hard line that identifies country X as a particular regime. There have, however, been some instances in which countries have turned into oligarchies … Continue reading »
Russia-West relationship: The Long Telegram revisited
The Russian invasion into Crimea sent the Russia-West relationship to the lowest point in a long time and many commentators talk about the return of the Cold War: although Russian media talked about turning America into radioactive dust, few want to have a military conflict in Europe and yet the Russian aggression has to be stopped (the UN resolution on … Continue reading »
What is really at stake in Crimea?
By Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gérard Roland By ordering the covert invasion of Crimea, Russian President Putin created an extremely tense situation not only in Ukraine but also in the rest of Europe. The official motivation for his actions, i.e. to defend Russians living in Ukraine, is a sham. There is no evidence of the new … Continue reading »
Ukraine: What emergency measures and what long-term changes are needed?
By Gérard Roland and Yuriy Gorodnichenko* Feb. 27, 2014: Ukraine’s ‘February Revolution’ is threatened by the nation’s dire economic straits. The column discusses short- and long-term changes that are necessary to get the nation through this crisis and back on the track to stability. Although it is only a few days after the successful February … Continue reading »
Ukraine: A battle for the future of Europe
Squeezed between European super powers, Ukraine is no stranger to tensions, but it has been a remarkably peaceful country in the modern history. The recent waves of protests and government-sponsored violence moved Ukraine to the brink of a civil war with far-reaching consequences for Europe as well as Russia and other post-communist countries in the … Continue reading »